01
If it has not happened, it is due
The gambler’s fallacy, in a uniform.
Topic hub
Probability
Probability measures how likely an event is, from 0 to 1, in a defined set of equally likely outcomes — or it says the outcomes are not equally likely, which is the interesting case. Children struggle when ‘random’ means ‘fair’, or when they add probabilities that should be multiplied.
Why this concept matters
Intuition about chance is famously wrong in adults too. The classroom version is fixable with a sample space drawn out.
Misconceptions, in the order we see them
02
Two events: add the chances
‘And’ vs ‘or’ was never attached to multiply vs add.
03
A probability of 0 means impossible in the real world
The model and the world are the same thing in their head.
Which classes cover this
Related: Fractions · Decimals · Percentages · Ratio and proportion · Integers
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